Will this week’s US GDP data send crypto markets building even higher?

This week, investors are focusing on key reports that could provide insight into the health and outlook of the US economy.

The most anticipated is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, which serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation.

There are also reports on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data that could shake up the markets.

Economic events from June 24 to 28

Consumer confidence data will be released on Tuesday, providing insight into sentiment and the state of the economic recovery. However, the first of the big reports is released on Thursday with annual GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (final estimate).

The second estimate showed economic growth slowing to an annualized 1.3%, down from 3.4% in the fourth quarter, and the final estimate is expected to confirm those numbers.

“All eyes are on the GDP data as recent prints have suggested we may be seeing stagflation,” macroeconomics outlet The Kobeissi Letter commented in a post on X on 24 June.

Key events this week:

1. CB Consumer Confidence Data – Tuesday

2. New home sales data – Wednesday

3. Final GDP data for Q1 2024 – Thursday

4. May PCE inflation data – Friday

5. Fed Monetary Policy Report – Friday

6. A total of 8 Fed speaker events this week

Tons of important…

— Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 23, 2024

Friday June 28 will be a very intense day. May’s Core PCE is released and investors and policymakers will be paying attention. Following lower than expected May CPI numbers, this report will be closely watched for continued disinflationary trend.

Personal income and expenditure reports for May are also released on Friday. This data reflects total personal income and consumer purchases in the United States, providing crucial information about the overall economic health that can influence central bank decisions.

Finally, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June and consumer inflation expectations will also be released on Friday. These reports show consumer confidence levels and long-term inflation expectations, which affect consumer spending and also factor into the Fed’s inflation expectations calculations.

There are also a total of 8 Fed speaker events this week.

Crypto market outlook

With such a heavy data week on the economic calendar, there could be more volatility for risk assets like crypto.

Total market capitalization has fallen another 5% over the past 24 hours to a six-week low of $2.35 trillion. Markets are down 11% this month, with about $300 billion leaving the space.

Bitcoin fell 4% in a slide towards $61,000, but managed to stay above trading at $61,300 at the time of writing.

Ethereum suffered more pain, falling to a six-week low of $3,310 during Asian trading on Monday.

Altcoins continued to bleed with bigger losses for Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Avalanche (AVAX), which fell to their lowest level this year over the weekend.

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