Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote

This week in prediction markets:

Courting crypto voters appears to have boosted Trump’s chances.

Doug Burgum still trails Tim Scott for the Republican Vice Presidential pick.

Longshot Ether ETF ticker contract delivers triple-digit returns for bettors despite controversy over its resolution.

Taking a strong pro-crypto stance may have strengthened Donald Trump’s lead over incumbent president Joe Biden; At least if you look at the prediction markets.

Last week, Trump pledged to commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, a near and dear figure to many in the crypto community, and vowed to make the United States a leader in the digital assets industry. This is a much more willing stance than the Biden administration has taken.

During the same period, Biden’s “yes” shares on PredictIt, an election betting platform popular with retail traders that places trades in dollars, fell from 46 cents to 44 cents. If Biden is re-elected, he will pay $1 per share, and if he loses, he will pay nothing. In fact, the price of 44 cents means that the market sees his chance of re-election at 44%.

Crypto-based Polymarket, which technically bans US residents from using its service, also showed a similar change in rates.

Trump gained two percentage points on the platform in seven days, increasing his chances to 56%, while Biden fell two percentage points to 37%.

Polls showed neither a dramatic difference between the two candidates nor a change as dramatic as last week’s. Trump’s lead in the poll increased by just 80 basis points to 1.7%, according to FiveThirtyEight averages. Proponents of prediction markets argue that they can be a more reliable indicator of sentiment and forecasting tool because, unlike people answering questions over the phone, bettors have a role in the game.

Markets are also showing interest in North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as a possible running mate for Trump.

Burgum has been a speaker at recent Trump rallies and was the subject of a Wall Street Journal profile in which Republican insiders described him as “a rich guy with rich friends who goes a long way with Trump.”

Burgum shares are currently trading at 18 cents, or 18 cents, on the Polymarket, up three percentage points; On PredictIt, it is traded at 15 cents, with a slight decrease.

On both platforms, Burgum trails Tim Scott, who maintains a 23% lead on PredictIt and 27% on Polymarket, well ahead of established Republicans like Marco Rubio at 10% on Polymarket or Nikki Haley at 4% taking.

Ether ETF bets deliver big profits

A confidential dispute has arisen at Polymarket regarding the resolution of the contract regarding whether the US Securities and Exchange Commission will support Ethereum ETFs. Bettors clash over whether “approval” refers only to 19b-4 forms or also to S-1 filings.

The story continues

Unexpectedly, the SEC last week requested updated 19b-4 filings from prospective Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers. Days later, those filings, critical documents in the approval process, were given the green light by the SEC, to the consternation of longtime analysts. It was thought that the SEC’s vague view on Ethereum’s security status would delay things.

But as baseball legend Yogi Berra said, it’s not over until it’s over.

Although the SEC has approved 19b-4 forms for ETFs, it still must approve S-1 filings before trading can begin, said Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart.

“ETFs are not considered ‘approved’ until both the applicable registration form (such as S-1, N-1A, or N-2) and the 19b-4 application are signed by the SEC,” VanEck’s Matthew Sigel said. the head of research posted on X (formerly Twitter).

Despite these bureaucratic technicalities, the Polymarket contract, which took over $13 million in bets, was still decided “yes”, meaning that the “oracle” or arbitrator of the contract decided that the issue was resolved.

This led to money being made in the long run.

A user using Paperliss who bought at 7 cents near the bottom of the market turned just over $300 into $4,358, a return of 1,329%.

Meanwhile, the largest holder of “Yes” shares in the contract, notgonnatrickme, achieved a 61% return, making its just over $10,000 bet worth $16,902 when the contract closed.