This Is When The Current Bitcoin Bull Cycle Will End – CryptoQuant CEO

Bitcoin price performance over the past ten years or so has been dominated by bear and bull cycles.

The BTC halving is generally considered the catalyst for the start of the bull market, while the last two years before each event are dictated by the bears.

current cycle

However, this has not been the case during the current run, which began in mid-2023 and was initially fueled by hype surrounding the possible approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Once these products materialized in early 2024, the asset broke its 2021 all-time high and posted a new one of nearly $74,000. This was the first time a new peak was recorded before a halving.

The reasoning behind this is that once these products saw the light of day, it meant that BTC is now a legitimate investment asset, as the companies that launched them are some of the biggest in the world, including BlackRock and Fidelity.

Inflows skyrocketed in the first few months, and while demand has flattened out a bit in recent weeks, the price of BTC made a massive run and is still hovering around $60,000-$70,000 .

Additionally, the US Federal Reserve is rumored to begin lowering interest rates later this year, which is typically seen as a bullish development for riskier assets like BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

Last but not least, the halving took place a month ago. Although most experts claim that the effects of each block reward cut are diminishing over time, the fact is that the production of new BTC is decreasing and has now dropped to around 450 BTC per day. Much lower than the average accumulation rate of ETFs, whales and retail investors.

when will it end

Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that BTC is currently in the middle of its ongoing bull cycle. He described a chart showing that bitcoin’s real market cap is “growing faster than its real cap,” which is a variation of the market cap that values ​​each UTXO at the price it last moved.

This trend usually lasts for two years and would mean that the current bull run will end in the next 11 months or so.

#Bitcoin it is in the middle of the bull cycle.

Its market capitalization is growing faster than its realized peak, a trend that typically lasts about two years.

If this pattern continues, the bull cycle could end in April 2025. pic.twitter.com/o4k8B1Rkhv

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 17, 2024

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