PlanB’s S2F model remains unchanged amid market correction

Bitcoin had a rough start to May as its upward trajectory appears to have peaked after a bullish quarter.

However, prominent crypto analyst PlanB predicts that the average price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency could reach $500,000 between 2024 and 2028, according to its Stock-to-Flow model.

Another bold Bitcoin prediction

In its latest analysis, PlanB stated that bitcoin’s performance in April revealed a closing price of $60,632, marking the end of the previous halving cycle. This closing price essentially indicates the end of a cycle.

Despite falling slightly below the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model prediction of $55,000, the average price over the 2020-2024 halving cycle is $34,000. Their May analysis signals the start of a new countdown to the next halving.

April closing price of Bitcoin $60,632
This was the last blue dot (month 0). 2020-2024 halving cycle median price of $34,000 (slightly below S2F 2019 forecast of $55,000). May will be the first red dot, the start of the new countdown to the next halving (S2F 2024-2028 forecast: ~$500k). pic.twitter.com/BPqNy0cTUg

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 1, 2024

The analyst’s S2F model also forecasts around $500,000 for 2024-2028. However, bitcoin’s recent price action tells a different story as it hit multi-month lows on May 1, falling to $56,555, its lowest level since February.

With bitcoin posting its worst month since November 2022, the leading cryptocurrency has struggled to recover, currently sitting at $57,300 after a 7% drop over the past day. These recent losses extend to nearly 20% for the month.

Notice before fall

Bitcoin’s latest fall was already predicted by QCP Capital, which stated that the market was preparing for a volatile trading session, citing several key indicators. The launch of Hong Kong’s Bitcoin and Ether Spot ETFs, for example, with well-below-expected volumes of $8.5 million for BTC and $2.5 million for ETH, signaled a disappointing start .

The crypto hedge fund also noted that this could suggest institutional interest in crypto may be more concentrated in the US, while Asian interest leans towards private wealth and local dominance. Also, with Amazon’s gains and the conviction of Binance founder and former CEO CZ due that evening, the stage was set for further volatility.

“The market is trading strong because of this, with BTC touching 61k and ETH near 3k. With Amazon’s earnings and the CZ ruling tonight, we could be looking at a volatile session in NY hours.”

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