More pain for incoming BTC? The miners have not yet capitulated

There has been increased speculation about a Bitcoin miner capitulating as hash rate increases slow, operating costs rise and the price of the asset continues to fall.

Analyst James Check assessed the miner’s selling pressure to determine the severity of the miner’s selloff in a video on June 21.

Miners selling after a halving event and reducing their block grant is pretty normal, he said.

I’ve seen some people speculating about whether #Bitcoin miners are capitulating and suppressing the price.

So I ran the numbers and looked at the lateral selling pressure from current and former miners.

Now he lives for @_checkonchain subscribers.https://t.co/BqEd6tkokG

— _Chess and checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Escacmatey_) June 21, 2024

Selling Bitcoin Miners

Check analyzed the Puell multiple, which is calculated by dividing the daily bitcoin issuance value by the 365-day moving average of the daily issuance value, to determine that miners may not be at an “extreme stress level , but they don’t have a good time either.”

If the market declines further from here, they would probably go into capitulation, he said before adding, at the moment they are just “tottering on the edge”.

He also identified a “hash tape reversal”, which happens when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate crosses below the 60-day moving average, indicating a period of difficulty when weaker miners have to ‘shut down unprofitable platforms.

Also, the overall decrease in hash rate has been only 4%, which is not huge and is less than during previous periods of mining stress.

“It’s likely that the miners are giving away some of their treasure, but it may not be a complete and total fire sale, which means they’re just treading water.”

“This does not look like a real painful capitulation of the bear market,” he concluded.

In a post on X on June 21, fellow analyst Willy Woo commented that bitcoin will recover when “the weak miners die and the hash rate recovers.”

“This one is for the record books as it’s taking a long time for miners to capitulate after the halving,” he added, before claiming that ordinal entries were likely boosting profits.

I’ll break it down in simple terms.

when he does #Bitcoin recover? This is when the weak miners die and the hash rate recovers.

This one is for the record books as it is taking a long time for the miners to capitulate after the half.

You can probably appreciate the ordinal registrations that increase the profits. pic.twitter.com/19MB0b8mHO

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) June 20, 2024

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin fell to a five-week low of $63,550 on June 21, but had rallied to regain $64,000 during Asian trade on Saturday.

Analyst “Don Alt” said the markets were at a “do or die” level in the weekly time frame before reiterating his position: “I really don’t like the low $60,000 range for a another test”.

If this level is broken, BTC could fall to the next support level, which is $52,000, he said. This pushes miners into capitulation, inducing more selling pressure.

$BTC

On a weekly do-or-die level here
As I said before, I really don’t like the low $60,000 range for another test
This is better support, not tested

If it breaks I think we will go to the next indicated support, if it has new ATHs it is likely pic.twitter.com/ROZ1oQZ001

— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) June 21, 2024

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