From $100k to $250k? Analyzing Bitcoin’s bull market signals

Even though it’s down a bit now, who would have thought we’d see Bitcoin surpass $100,000 so quickly?

As we move towards 2025, the real question on our minds is: What lies ahead? Is Bitcoin (BTC) a bubble about to burst, or are we on track for the $150,000 to $200,000 level soon? Are there any rational means to predict its orbit, or are we just playing guessing games?

From what I’ve observed, the fog begins to clear when you take the macro perspective into account when examining on-chain and technical indicators. Let’s layer these three types of analysis in this article to see what kind of picture emerges for Bitcoin’s next move.

Extreme greed, increasing active addresses and record hash rate

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 78, indicating Extreme Greed, which generally signals potential tops in the short term. However, sustained levels of extreme greed during bull markets are often aligned with parabolic price increases before eventual peaks.

This often precedes short-term pullbacks caused by market exuberance; We are currently witnessing this as the price of Bitcoin hovers around 100 thousand dollars.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index | Source: Alternative.me

The number of active addresses is increasing and reached 855,153 as of December 8; This shows that interest and usage in the Bitcoin network is increasing.

Number of active BTC addresses | Source: Glassnode

As of December 9, 2024, Bitcoin’s hash rate is approximately 850.70 EH/s, reflecting a significant improvement from recent fluctuations but remaining below the all-time high of 949.98 EH/s recorded on November 26, 2024. Hash rate has not regained ATH yet, this sustainable strength reflects miner confidence and network security, i.e. long-term bullish signals. Bitcoin’s price tends to follow its hash rate; The more confident miners are about the price increase, the less likely they are to sell.

BTC hash rate | Source: CoinWarz

Weekly Golden Cross indicates a bull market with a potential of $150K to $250K

The weekly Golden Cross, where the 50-week moving average rises above the 200-week moving average, is an extremely important signal for long-term investors because it often marks the beginning of major bull markets and the end of prolonged bearish phases.

The previous example of this signal occurred when Bitcoin rebounded from the bear market in 2018 and eventually rose to an all-time high of $69,000 in 2021.

This signal, mirroring its behavior in previous bull cycles, re-emerged in early 2024 and preceded Bitcoin’s parabolic rise to its all-time high of $103,647. Previous bull cycles following weekly Golden Crosses have led to gains of 300%-600%.

If this pattern continues, Bitcoin could potentially reach $150,000 to $250,000 before the next major cycle correction. Meanwhile, assuming Bitcoin goes through a full cycle of price appreciation, correction, and consolidation, the next Golden Cross is unlikely to occur until 2026 or 2027.

BTC Gold and Death Cross pattern | Source: TradingView RSI signals overbought conditions, hints at a pullback or consolidation

On the weekly time frame, the Relative Strength Index stands at 74.47, consistent with overbought conditions. However, this does not mean that the trend will reverse immediately; Rather, it reflects the possibility of a short-term pullback or sideways price movement.

Many bull cycles in the past have seen similar RSI readings, followed by temporary pullbacks followed by renewed rallies to higher levels.

During the 2021 bull cycle, the RSI reached similar levels multiple times before rising above 90, after which Bitcoin experienced a significant correction. Assuming Bitcoin stays within its recent consolidation range around $100k and the RSI returns to a healthier 60-65 range, the next upside move could occur.

A healthy 10%-20% correction or a sideways period will allow markets to reset before experiencing sustained growth. For reference, a 10% correction from the all-time high of $103,647 would bring Bitcoin’s price to approximately $93,282.

Relative Strength Index | Source: TradingView Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Bands signal important support and potential cooling

Used in technical analysis to identify potential support and resistance zones, Fibonacci retracement levels help show where a price may pull back before resuming its trend. Based on the table below:

Key Levels:

$71,858 (0.618): Major retracement level acting as a strong support zone (30.67% retracement from the all-time high of $103,647). $103.135 (0.786): Important resistance zone near the all-time high.

Bitcoin price is currently trading slightly below the upper Bollinger Band, signaling strong bullish momentum. However, this position also signals potential overextension, as prices often retrace or consolidate when they deviate significantly from the midline (20-week simple moving average, currently $71,858).

A pullback to $71,858 or a consolidation near the current price of $99,249 would represent a normal period of calm within the Bollinger Band framework and prepare the market for potential further gains.

Fibonacci retracement levels and Bollinger Bands | Source: TradingView Visualizing Bitcoin’s market behavior through fundamental indicators

To better visually represent Bitcoin’s market behavior, let’s look at the colorful chart below. It includes a color-coded bar at the top that reflects RSI conditions. The purple and green blocks currently visible indicate periods of oversold or uptrend, reflecting bullish momentum and adjusting to RSI overbought levels.

The second bar shows market structure trends (e.g. changing, bullish or bearish). On the chart, we see green blocks indicating that the market is in an uptrend phase and confirming the breakout behavior.

The master oscillator then displays the Awesome Oscillator with divergences and pivot points, where green peaks above zero and brown zones below confirm positive momentum and bullish pivots.

The secondary oscillator below the AO is showing similar momentum indicators; positive bars (green above zero) indicate accelerating upward momentum and a strong uptrend.

Bitcoin Rainbow Indicators | Source: TradingView Potential crypto space developments in 2025

Halving the supply shock, increasing retail and institutional participation, and institutional accumulation (companies like MicroStrategy and other corporate treasuries embracing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset) could push demand to new highs.

The proportion of institutional investors will likely increase, stabilizing price movements but also making Bitcoin more relevant to traditional markets.

Bitcoin’s dominance (currently around 55%) could increase further as investors favor the “digital gold” narrative over altcoins, particularly as regulatory scrutiny tightens around smaller tokens.

Bitcoin wallet growth will continue as adoption increases in emerging markets, with Bitcoin being used as a hedge against local currency devaluation.

Large companies may begin to conduct cross-border transactions with Bitcoin, while central banks in regions with high inflation or de-dollarization trends may increase interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Countries like the US, EU, and UAE are likely to finalize crypto-friendly regulations; Other jurisdictions may restrict decentralized finance and self-custody to maintain control over financial systems.

shutting down thoughts

Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark in a burst of excitement; This was an astonishing achievement. Technical indicators, including the weekly Golden Cross and RSI, point to the possibility of further growth, and forecasts point to a potential climb between $150K and $250K in this bull cycle.

However, a period of healthy consolidation or correction will likely provide a stronger foundation for future price movements. By 2025, Bitcoin could achieve what was once considered nearly impossible; It can make itself a major player in the global financial system.