Calm before the storm or stable new era?

Bitcoin fell to a monthly low of $65,000 on June 14 and is currently down about 5% since the same time last week. However, zooming out to see the bigger picture shows that the asset is still consolidating where it has been since early March.

“Bitcoin very rarely stays this calm,” analyst James Check commented in a post on X on June 14. The 30-day price range is separated by just 8.3%, he added before noting:

“There are two outcomes: 1) Bitcoin remains a stable currency for a new paradigm. 2) Volatility is just on the horizon.

#Bitcoin very rarely does it go so smoothly.

The 30-day price range is separated by only 8.3%.

There are two results:
1) Bitcoin remains a stable currency for a new paradigm
2) Volatility is just over the horizon. pic.twitter.com/aNl3WlkZky

— _Chess and checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Escacmatey_) June 14, 2024

Bitcoin still sideways

Additionally, Bitcoin’s put risk ratio, a metric used to navigate volatility, is currently low, suggesting that most of the losses and gains have already been realized. That implies the market needs to move to motivate the next round of spending, the analyst said.

Also, the “Choppiness Index”, which acts as a fuel indicator for BTC, indicates that the market is ready to trend on a weekly time frame, but still needs a break on a monthly basis.

“My assessment is that the market is ready to move in the short term (volatility), but not necessarily in the long term (continuation of the trend).”

The analyst concluded that the base case for Bitcoin remains “shear consolidation” characterized by small bombs and dumps that shake impatient headlines.

“The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to break out is beneficial to the overall cycle,” he commented fellow analyst ‘Rekt Capital’, who also noted the long period of limited trading.

He added that this ongoing consolidation is allowing the price to re-synchronize with historical halving cycles “so that we can get a normal, regular bull run.”

“History suggests this consolidation could continue for another 3 months.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoiner Samson Mow said that “the BTC spool is super compressed now.” to predict that comes a huge candle.

Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente compared the period of consolidation to a similar market phase last year.

It would be funny if BTC did the same summer consolidation fractal again pic.twitter.com/SSbIwWB3UA

— Will (@WClementeIII) June 14, 2024

Where will we go next?

On June 14, market analyst Jacob Canfield identified two potential scenarios. BTC could drop to $66,000, where it is currently trading, before a “strong reaction bounce” back towards $70,000.

Or there could be a “deep capitulation wick” of $60,000 to $62,000, he said. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $66,200, after a 1.2% drop on the day.

It is now 10% below its mid-March all-time high, but remains capped with a lower bound just below $60,000, where it dipped in early May.

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