BTC risks a fall to $81,000 if it breaks below this support level

Bitcoin is struggling with the midline of its extended ascending channel around the $92,000 mark, teetering on the edge of a possible breakdown.

Despite this, the cryptocurrency has several key support levels ahead, fueling optimism for a possible bullish recovery in the near future.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

Bitcoin has recently faced a notable correction, with the price currently stabilizing at the ascending channel mid-trend line near the $92,000 mark. This level acts as a critical support zone, historically representing an important area of ​​demand. Despite this support, sellers have exerted considerable pressure, threatening to break below this key threshold.

In the event of a successful breach, Bitcoin could experience a cascade of long liquidations, which could drive the price lower towards the 100-day moving average of $81,000. This MA represents solid dynamic support, which will likely attract substantial buying interest and mitigate further downward momentum. Conversely, a bounce to the current level could see Bitcoin regain bullish momentum, aiming to retest the $108,000 upper limit of the mid-term channel.

The 4 hour chart

In the lower period, Bitcoin has breached the average trendline of its multi-month ascending channel, indicating a wider spread among participants. This bearish development coincides with growing market uncertainty as investors anticipate potential volatility around President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025.

Bitcoin is currently near a critical support range defined by the $90,000 threshold and Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.5 ($87K) and 0.618 ($82K). This region is a formidable barrier to further selling pressure and is expected to trigger a market reversal.

Chain analysis

By Shayan

Bitcoin market participants remain uncertain about the continuation of the uptrend, with speculation over whether higher prices are imminent or whether the rally has concluded. A critical on-chain metric that provides insight into this behavior is the realized price UTXO age bands, especially for the 1-3 month (short-term) cohort.

The realized price for this cohort acts as a dynamic threshold, reflecting the average price at which these recent buyers acquired their holdings. When BTC holds above this realized price, it indicates growing bullish momentum, indicating that new buyers have enough confidence to hold despite the high levels. Conversely, a price drop below this threshold suggests greater selling risk, as these participants enter loss territory and may resort to panic selling, increasing downward pressure on the market.

Currently, the realized price of the 1-3 month cohort resides in the $81,000 region, marking it as a critical support zone. This level is considered the main line of defense for buyers in the long-term outlook, with its ability to hold likely determining the direction of the broader market.

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