Bitcoin’s hedging narrative gains traction as volatility hits record lows

Bitcoin is making another push towards the coveted six-figure milestone. On November 22, it was $200 short of $100,000 after reaching $99,800, fueling analyst expectations of an imminent breakthrough. However, subsequent corrections raised concerns.

A catalyst for Bitcoin could be the growing narrative as a hedge against global macroeconomic risks and a trusted store of value.

Maturing Bitcoin Market

As governments explore the idea of ​​strategic Bitcoin reserves, the risks of not holding the asset are becoming increasingly apparent, according to IntoTheBlock’s latest analysis. A common counterargument is Bitcoin’s historically high volatility, which some see as a barrier to its store-of-value status.

However, data from the on-chain analytics platform shows that Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily decreased over time, even with occasional spikes. In fact, Bitcoin’s volatility is now lower than that of stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

This trend indicates a maturing market, with institutional and national capital flows contributing to the stabilization of the asset. As volatility continues to decrease and adoption grows, Bitcoin’s role as a wealth preservation tool is likely to further strengthen.

Bitcoin Stays Below $100,000, What Happens?

In a statement to CryptoPotato, Sean Dawson, head of research at crypto trading platform Derive.xyz, said that even if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 on December 1, it remains unlikely, with only a 22 chance .4%, the odds improve significantly over time. There is a 76.8% probability that BTC will reach $100,000 in January 2025, although the probability of holding this level on December 27 has dropped slightly to 40%, reflecting recent market fluctuations.

By January 2025, the probability of crossing $100,000 rises to 44%, with a potential spike expected around Trump’s January 20 inauguration. Looking further ahead, the chance of Bitcoin breaking above $200,000 is 4% by the end of March, but will rise to 14%. for September

Meanwhile, the latest analysis from Ecoinometrics revealed that Bitcoin’s current break below $100,000 coincided with a slowdown in ETF inflows this week. Despite the slowdown, overall momentum remains strong, reflecting institutional interest, the platform added. The observed calm is probably linked to the natural reallocation phase after significant fourth quarter investments by institutions.

According to Ecoinometrics, a resurgence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory may require the start of a new quarter or an increase in FOMO-driven buying. Additionally, the timing of this slowdown aligns with the Thanksgiving holiday, which could temporarily impact business activity. Next week will be critical in determining whether the trend resumes or if the strong momentum from the fourth quarter begins to wane.

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