Bitcoin soars 9% as Trump’s electoral odds rise, MAGA tokens and NFTs gain too

Bitcoin is up 9% since the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania last weekend. As of Wednesday afternoon EST, the currency is trading around $64,500, according to CoinGecko data. The rising price appears to be tied to a belief that crypto-friendly leaders have a better chance of winning the White House in November.

Following the attack, prediction markets have turned in Trump’s favor. For example, since Saturday, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, has increased its forecast to 70%. Similarly, PredictIt has increased the former president’s odds to 67%. Research shows that prediction markets, where investors buy stocks based on what they see as the most likely outcome, can be “better predictors” of political outcomes on average. Meanwhile, betting site BetOnline has Trump’s odds of winning the White House at -300, or a 75% probability.

Markets react

Evidence of the growing consensus in the cryptocurrency market that Trump will triumph can be seen far beyond Bitcoin.

On the stock exchange, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. reflected growing confidence that the company’s majority shareholder will become chairman. The stock price rose 48% between Friday and Monday. Crypto-related stocks have also climbed since markets closed on Friday: Coinbase Global Inc. 13%, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. 20% and MicroStrategy Inc. 12%, to name a few.

Trump-themed meme coins are also on the rise. Memecoins can be seen as the counterculture corner of cryptocurrencies, fun, volatile coins flocked by online communities during viral moments. Super Trump ($STRUMP) is trending and is the third most searched cryptocurrency on CoinGecko. The token is up 38% in the past week, while MAGA coin ($TRUMP) is also up 15%. The popularity of Trump-themed coins can act as a signal for political outcomes, similar to prediction markets.

Meanwhile, Trump Digital Trading Cards, an NFT collectible, has gained popularity. The base price of Polygon-based tokens (or the cheapest listed) rose from $230 in the moments before the attack to $518 just hours later, according to data from NFT marketplace Magic Eden. The base price is currently around $423.

‘Crypto president’?

On a broader level, Bitcoin is rallying in response to the crypto market anticipating a Republican administration expected to support digital assets. Trump has introduced himself as a “crypto president” and is set to headline Bitcoin 2024, the industry’s largest conference with more than 30,000 attendees, in Nashville next week. Moreover, this week he named JD Vance as his crypto-friendly running mate.

The story continues

According to his Senate financial disclosure last year, Vance held between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of Bitcoin on cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. At current market prices, that’s somewhere between $136,000 and $390,000. Furthermore, Politico reported last month that Vance introduced a bill that would revamp how the U.S. regulates digital assets. His plan would overhaul how the SEC and CFTC oversee the crypto market and make current policy more industry-friendly.

This story was first published on Fortune.com