a16z crypto outlines top 5 trends shaping crypto’s future in 2025

From mobile wallets to transaction fees, A16z crypto explains the most important indicators shaping the crypto landscape in 2025.

2024 has been a transformative year for the crypto space as activity hits all-time highs, transaction fees drop, stablecoins find practical uses, and spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds finally gain approval. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity has begun to emerge, offering the industry a clearer path forward. As 2025 gets underway, here are five metrics that a16z partner Daren Matsuoka believes are worth monitoring:

Mobile crypto wallets

Crypto wallets on mobile are where the action is. Matsuoka states that more than 35 million people will use them monthly in 2024, and big names such as Coinbase Wallet, MetaMask and Trust Wallet, which are leaders in this regard, have come to the fore. At the same time, newer applications focused on Solana, such as Phantom and World App, are also gaining ground.

Mobile crypto apps have become so popular that they now serve as an unofficial indicator of retail investor interest; observers are detecting a correlation between their high rankings on the Apple App Store and rising crypto prices.

Although millions of people own crypto, many remain passive holders. For wider adoption, Matsuoka agrees that blockchain developers must find “the right balance between security, privacy, and usability,” and that the task is “not trivial.” However, partner a16z believes that blockchain infrastructure can now handle “hundreds of millions or billions of people on chain,” adding that this is “a better time than ever to build a next-generation mobile wallet.”

Despite the presence of major US brands such as PayPal, Apple Pay and Google Pay, the countries with the highest mobile wallet adoption are in Asia, according to data from Statista. This trend is not accidental, considering that in emerging markets mobile wallets are used as a tool to solve the problem of unbanked populations. As a result, the next big innovation in mobile crypto wallets may emerge from this region.

Stablecoins everywhere

Stablecoins have a big moment in 2024. Low transaction fees have made them even more useful for things like cross-border payments, remittances, or even just purchasing everyday items. They also help people in countries with crazy inflation (Argentina and Türkiye, for example).

“Stablecoins are already the cheapest way to send dollars, and we expect businesses to increasingly accept stablecoins for payments.”

Daren Matsuoka

However, there is still no dominant solution that will bring stablecoin payments closer to traditional methods and leave a significant gap in the market.

Monthly active unique stablecoin wallets | Source: Visa

Matsuoka notes that stablecoin payments are rapidly gaining traction and show no signs of slowing down, as payments giant Visa has developed a dashboard to distinguish actual stablecoin usage from bot-supported transactions.

“This metric will be one to watch if the adoption of stablecoins, one of the clearest use cases of cryptocurrency, begins in 2025,” says Matsuoka.

ETPs bring Bitcoin and Ethereum to the masses

Last year, Bitcoin and Ethereum approved the first eligible exchange-traded funds in the US. This makes it much easier for ordinary people and large institutions to invest in crypto.

Bitcoin ETF flows | Source: Dune

However, Matsuoka notes that so far these ETFs have attracted only 515,000 BTC (~$110 billion) and 611,000 ETH (~$13 billion), adding: “Mobilizing distributors such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Merrill Lynch will enable these products to “It will take time to introduce it into retail investors’ portfolios.”

The a16z partner recommends tracking on-chain deposits and withdrawals from addresses “identified as custodians of ETPs,” noting that more institutional investors will seek exposure to crypto assets, leading to increased net flows for ETPs.

DEXs and CEXs

Decentralized exchanges are slowly eating into the market share of centralized exchanges. Although trade volumes are still far from central rivals, they currently account for about 11% of spot trade, Matsuoka said, adding that this figure is increasing.

“Recently, DEX volume has reached an all-time high due to the huge increase in transaction volume as new users enter the space on high-throughput chains such as Coinbase Base and Solana.”

Daren Matsuoka

Although Matsuoka said DEXs will continue to gain their share in 2025, it is unclear whether retail investors will rush to switch from centralized platforms. The pace has been slow so far, with decentralized trading platforms taking four years to capture more than 10% of spot trading volume compared to their centralized counterparts, according to data from DefiLlama.

Transaction fees

In order to determine which blockchain network is gaining popularity, transaction fees can indicate how much demand there is. But here’s the catch: While fees may grow, they shouldn’t be so high that they scare users away.

Last year, Solana surpassed Ethereum for the first time in total fees collected, even though Solana’s transactions were extremely cheap (less than 1 cent compared to more than $5 on Ethereum). Matsuoka agrees that this is a big milestone, adding that many ecosystems and their associated fee markets have matured, making it “a good time to start measuring the economic value provided by various blockchains.”

Over the long term, blockspace demand, measured as the total US Dollar value of fees paid, may be the most important metric for tracking the crypto industry’s progress, as it reflects participation in valuable economic activities and users’ willingness to pay for them. Matsuoka wrote.